India News
Emerging Markets: Why India Stocks Could Be Big Winners in 2018 | Writer | Admin | |||
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At this time last year, many investors feared that a trade-skeptical Trump administration would lead to globalization’s demise and crashes in foreign markets. But no such nightmares came true in 2017. In fact, many international equity markets outpaced the U.S. Driven by stabilizing oil prices and low interest rates, the MSCI World ex USA— which tracks developed markets outside the States— rose 24% over the past 12 months, six percentage points better than the S&P 500 over the same period.
Many
money managers expect the trend to continue in 2018. With U.S. stocks riding at
high valuations after nearly nine years of a bull market, the world outside is
looking less expensive, with the ex USA index trading at 14.5 times forward
earnings, compared with the S&P 500’s 18 times. “We still see more upside
in emerging markets, Europe, and Japan than in the U.S.,” J.P. Morgan Asset
Management managing director Paul Quinsee recently told clients. And that
upside looks particularly big in India and East Asia, where newly minted
middle-class consumers are helping companies generate big gains for investors.
Here are three markets stirring excitement.
South
Korea Michael
Oh, a portfolio manager at the Matthews Asia Innovators Fund, says South Korean
companies are capitalizing on the country’s own rising middle class while
catering to the far bigger consumer market in China. At the same time, he adds,
“South Korea is often overlooked [by investors] for China and India, so the
valuations tend to look very attractive.” Oh is upbeat on Samsung Electronics,
which he says is three years ahead of its peers in making flash memory products
for smartphones and data storage. He also favors beauty-products maker Hugel.
That company is making headway in China, the world’s largest beauty market,
where consumers tend to be less trusting of domestic brands. The iShares MSCI
South Korea Capped ETF gives American investors easy access to South Korea’s
stocks; Samsung is its largest holding.
With U.S.
stocks riding at high valuations after nearly nine years of a bull market, the
world outside is looking less expensive.
Japan A steady
diet of stimulative economic policy has finally had an impact in Japan, where
the economy is on track for two consecutive years of growth—a rare feat in
recent decades. But many asset managers say investors have yet to take
advantage. “Earnings have grown faster than stock prices,” a sign that there’s
lots of upside left, says Richard Turnill, global chief investment strategist
at BlackRock. Tadahiro Fujimura, CIO of Sparx Asset Management, says that
smaller companies, which aren’t chained down by legacy products and old,
bureaucratic structures, are in the best position to take advantage of the
growth. That category includes DCM Holding, a home-center store not unlike Home
Depot. Fujimura expects its earnings to grow about 10% in 2018. Investors can
make a broader bet on Japanese small-caps with the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap
Dividend ETF, which is up 26% over the past year.
India India’s middle class is expected to grow even
larger than China’s one day—and they’ll likely want to borrow money. Matthew
Benkendorf, CIO at Vontobel Asset Management, likes HDFC Bank, the largest
private bank in India, whose earnings have compounded 20% a year over the past
decade in U.S. dollar terms. It’s a middle-class play, offering mortgages,
small-business loans, and checking accounts to a population that is largely
unbanked. Oh, of Matthews Asia, says IndusInd Bank is also poised to capitalize
on India’s fast-growing and fast-flowing stream of disposable income.
A version
of this article appears in the Jan. 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline
“Investors Look to Asia.” http://fortune.com/2017/12/21/asia-investments-samsung-stock/ |
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