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| World focused on India like never before: Yergin | Writer | Admin | |||
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When Daniel Yergin talks, oil markets and planners listen. He won the Pulitzer for demystifying the shifting sands of world oil in his book, 'The Prize'. His recent bestseller, 'The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World', unravels the power play that goes on behind the scenes. Sanjay Dutta caught up with the guru of political economy of fossil fuels in Delhi during the India Energy Forum CERAWeek conference last week. Excerpts:
CERA Week is recognised as a key global platform for examining energy market trends. It has moved out of Houston for the first time. What made you choose India?
The changes in India are so dynamic, the world is focused on India in a way that it was not a few years ago and sees it as the great growth market. This is where the great consumption growth is going to be. There is a government and an energy minister who are focused on change and have commitment. It's amazing what has been accomplished in the last three-and-a-half years.
Where does India's rising appetite for fossil fuels leave it in a world rapidly changing with new-age mobility solutions and increased focus on alternative energy?
This has been the biggest research project I've been engaged in through last year. It is called 'Reinventing the Wheel' and is trying to see how not just electric vehicles but ride-sharing, ride-hailing, autonomous vehicles are coming together. Are we going to see a transformation of the auto system in some fundamental way? The numbers are familiar: 2 billion cars by 2040, about 1.2 billion today. Even with all these changes, it's not going to change overnight.
What is the unfinished agenda that you want the government to pursue?
India is certainly more attractive. But while reforms have proceeded in India, reforms have proceeded in other countries too. We are in a low-price environment and countries are competing for investments. In 2014, countries were competing for access. But since 2014, companies have become selective. From 2015-2019, investment in upstream is 52% lower than what would have been estimated. So, countries have to think in much more competitive terms if they want to draw investment. I think that is going to be the agenda.
Do you see India driving the oil market agenda as a major buyer?
India is trying. A comparison with China is
inevitable. Consumption in China at this point is as much as three times as in
India. But, the (consumption) growth in India matches the growth in China. One
thing that really jumps out from our Reinventing the Wheel study is the
demographic difference. China is a rapidly ageing society, India is a
new-generation society and lot of jobs have to be created.
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